Melbourne Cup 2026: Maher and O'Brien Dominate the Field as Rain-Soaked Flemington Adds a Wildcard

October 28, 2026

Ciaron Maher and Joseph O'Brien could train more than half of the 24-horse field for the 2026 Melbourne Cup, with Point Of Law the favourite and a soft Flemington track adding uncertainty.

The race that stops a nation is less than a week away, and the shape of the 2026 Melbourne Cup is finally coming into focus. Two trainers, Ciaron Maher and Ireland's Joseph O'Brien, look set to saddle more than half of the 24-horse field. Geelong Cup winner Point Of Law heads the betting. And after a weekend in which more than 50mm of rain soaked Flemington, the condition of the track has become one more factor for punters to weigh before the gates open on Tuesday, November 3.

A two-stable Melbourne Cup

The big story of this year's Cup is how much of the field belongs to just two trainers. Ciaron Maher, who won the race in 2022 with Gold Trip, is on track to start seven or eight horses. Joseph O'Brien, who won it with Rekindling in 2017 and Twilight Payment in 2020, is expected to have five. Between them, they could have about 13 of the 24 runners.

For Maher, the numbers could also be historic. The record for the most runners from one trainer in a single Melbourne Cup is six, set in 2013. Maher's likely team of Point Of Law, Middle Earth, Saint George, Juja Kibo, Zahrann, Shockletz, Royal Supremacy and Mr Monaco would break it comfortably.

"They seem to be coming together at the right time," Maher said of his Cup horses over the weekend. "They're going well, they're in their right races and the team are doing a great job... I'm very proud."

O'Brien first nominated 11 horses and has cut his team to a smaller, high-quality group: Sons And Lovers, Trustyourinstinct, Defiantly, Goodie Two Shoes and James J Braddock. Goodie Two Shoes placed in last year's Cup, and Trustyourinstinct arrives as winner of the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2800m.

The main contenders

The field will not be final until acceptances close at 4:30pm AEDT on Saturday. Late scratchings and vet checks can still change it. Here are the horses at the front of the betting and the names getting the most attention as of midweek:

Provisional details as of Wednesday, October 28. Jockeys and weights may change before final acceptances.

Point Of Law leads the market

Point Of Law is a recent import to Maher's stable. He went to the top of the betting after an impressive win in the Group 2 Geelong Cup over 2400m, which also earned him one of the Cup's "golden ticket" starts. As of Monday he was around $6.50, and he and Trustyourinstinct were the only two horses in single figures. With just 53kg, he looks to have a favourable weight for a horse at the top of the market.

Juja Kibo, another Maher runner, booked his place by winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup on Saturday and was around $15 afterwards. Middle Earth placed in the 2025 Cup, and Saint George ran into a place in this year's Caulfield Cup. Together they give Maher several different chances in the race.

Seven horses that "can win the race"

One leading owner, John O'Neill, has a share in several of Maher's horses. He said this week that he sees only seven genuine winning chances. His list included Maher's Zahrann, Shockletz, Saint George, Point Of Law and Middle Earth, as well as O'Brien's Defiantly and Trustyourinstinct.

"I think there's seven horses that can win the race," O'Neill said on a racing radio show. He added that Maher might end up with "seven or eight runners, and the only danger he's got of not winning is JP McManus' horse (Trustyourinstinct) or Defiantly."

When asked about James J Braddock, O'Neill named the one condition that could change his view: "No, wet tracker. If it's a Heavy track he's got a great chance."

Why the weather matters this year

That comment matters more than usual this year. Flemington has had a busy, wet spring. With Moonee Valley unavailable, the course also hosted the Cox Plate on October 24, which outsider Cosmic Crusader won under William Pike. That left track manager Liam O'Keeffe with five meetings to prepare in 14 days.

His team worked until 1am after the Cox Plate to finish repair work before storms arrived. Flemington then took 53mm of rain on Sunday. "It's pulled up really well," O'Keeffe said. "It presents on the better side of soft now."

The forecast for Derby Day on Saturday ranges from 3mm to 20mm of rain. Warm, humid conditions in between make it harder to plan how much to water the track. "It's tricky when you get those humid type conditions because what can happen is you can basically get no rainfall, but a little bit of drying, and then … you can get a storm come through," he said.

For Cup Day itself, the early outlook is better: about 19 to 20 degrees, overcast and no rain. It is still several days away, though, and Melbourne's spring weather often changes. If the track is still soft, horses like James J Braddock could become much more interesting. A firm surface would suit the classier, faster horses at the top of the market.

James J Braddock: a first ride on Cup day

James J Braddock is named after the 1930s heavyweight boxer whose story inspired the film Cinderella Man. He is one of the more unusual entries in the field. The four-year-old son of Zarak finished third in the Epsom Derby, where he became agitated before the race, and then sixth in the Irish Derby. He has been gelded since.

His jockey, Craig Williams, won the Cup in 2019 with Vow And Declare, but he will not ride the horse until the mounting yard on race day. "Joseph said he's got it under control and it looks like I'll see him in the mounting yard on the first Tuesday in November," Williams said. "That's not unusual for us these days. You fly into different parts of the world and ride horses for the first time." The horse's connections say he has been "absolutely bouncing" since arriving at Werribee from Ireland.

Still trying to get in

Several horses just outside the top 24 are hoping for a late place. The most interesting is So You Are, trained by Bjorn Baker. He won Wednesday's Group 3 Bendigo Cup over 2400m by half a length under Rachel King, his fourth win in a row. To move into the top 24, he needs a 1.5kg weight penalty from the handicappers. If he does not get it, he can still get in if other horses fail vet checks or are not accepted.

"He's done everything he can, the horse, so he deserves to be there and hopefully that's enough to get him in," said Luke Hilton, Baker's assistant.

Others are now out. Chris Waller has said he is very unlikely to run Cox Plate third-place finisher Aeliana, who would carry 58kg, and Cox Plate runner-up Birdman will race elsewhere during Cup week. Waller will still be represented by Soul Of Spain and Asterix, both at long odds.

Storylines to watch

• Knight's Choice won the 2024 Cup at a huge price and is back for another try.
• Jabez Johnstone, likely on Mr Monaco, is trying to become the first apprentice jockey to win the Cup since 15-year-old Ray Neville won on Rimfire in 1948.
• Stinger Glass gives Japan a strong chance, with Christophe Lemaire riding.
• The barrier draw on Saturday evening could change the betting quickly, especially for the many horses from the same two stables.

What comes next

Derby Day on Saturday is the last major Flemington meeting before the Cup, and the final field and barrier draw will follow that evening. Until then, the betting will keep moving with the weather forecast and the weight decisions. For now, Point Of Law leads the market, Maher and O'Brien dominate the field, and the track could still change how the race is run.

Written by Daniel Brooks

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