October 27, 2026
Bernstein forecasts $1.7 billion in Robinhood prediction market revenue by 2028, ahead of its crypto trading income, while Coinbase's event contracts and derivatives could reach $2 billion.
Prediction markets are becoming one of Robinhood's main businesses, and Wall Street is adjusting its forecasts. Brokerage Bernstein now expects the trading app to make $1.7 billion a year from event contracts by 2028. That would put prediction markets ahead of its cryptocurrency trading revenue, long one of the company's most important sources of income. The forecast comes just as Robinhood prepares to report its third-quarter results.
Analyst: Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein
Robinhood prediction market revenue: ~$650 million expected in 2026, $1.7 billion forecast for 2028
Robinhood crypto trading revenue (2028 forecast): $1.6 billion
Coinbase event contracts & derivatives: ~$600 million in 2026, $2 billion forecast for 2028
Robinhood revenue estimates raised: +3% (2026), +4% (2027), +3% (2028)
Next catalyst: Robinhood Q3 results, after the US market close on October 27
Event contracts set to overtake crypto
In a note published at the start of the week, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani repeated his view that Nasdaq-listed Robinhood Markets could make $1.7 billion from prediction markets in 2028. That is slightly more than the $1.6 billion he expects from cryptocurrency trading in the same year.
The forecast implies strong growth. Chhugani expects event contracts to bring in about $650 million this year, so revenue would have to more than double, about 2.6 times higher, in two years. He also raised his overall Robinhood revenue estimates by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028.
The forecast builds on a trend that is already visible. In the second quarter of 2026, Robinhood's prediction market revenue was higher than its cryptocurrency revenue for the first time. In the same quarter, crypto revenue fell sharply, by about 38%.
| Bernstein forecast | 2026 | 2028 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robinhood: prediction markets | ~$650M | $1.7B | ~2.6x |
| Robinhood: crypto trading | – | $1.6B | – |
| Coinbase: event contracts & derivatives | ~$600M | $2.0B | ~3.3x |
Coinbase is expected to grow even faster
Robinhood is not the only company Bernstein expects to benefit. The firm sees Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), one of the largest US crypto exchanges, growing its event contracts and derivatives revenue from about $600 million in 2026 to $2 billion in 2028, more than three times higher.
Coinbase's figure covers more than prediction markets. It also includes derivatives such as perpetual futures, contracts that let traders hold leveraged positions on an asset's price without an expiry date. Coinbase offers event contracts through a partnership with an established prediction market operator. Its large crypto customer base and strong balance sheet give it a good position in a market where crypto-linked contracts are among the fastest-growing categories outside sport.
The outlook is not entirely positive for Coinbase, however. In the same research round, Bernstein cut its price target on Coinbase shares to $250, while pointing to Robinhood as a clearer winner from the event contract boom.
What are event contracts?
An event contract is a simple financial instrument based on a yes-or-no question: will a team win, will the Federal Reserve cut rates, or will a company beat its earnings forecast? Each contract usually trades between $0.01 and $1. If the event happens, a "yes" contract pays $1; if not, it pays nothing. The price before the event works like a market-implied probability. A contract trading at $0.65 suggests traders think the outcome has about a 65% chance.
For a broker like Robinhood, the economics are simple. It earns a small fee on every contract bought or sold, whatever the result, so revenue grows with volume rather than with customers' wins or losses. That is very different from a sportsbook, which takes the other side of each bet and keeps the margin built into its odds. It also explains why brokerages and crypto exchanges, rather than traditional bookmakers, have moved into this market so quickly.
How Robinhood is building its prediction business
Robinhood has expanded its event contract offering quickly this year. In September it announced deals with Crypto.com and OG.com, routing a selection of football event contracts to their platforms just before the NFL and college football seasons, the busiest time of the year for sports contracts.
At the end of September, the company presented a wider set of trading tools, including earnings contracts that let users trade on company results, perpetual futures, AI-powered Robinhood Agents, and plans for weekend stock trading early next year. All of these aim to keep active traders on the app for longer.
Prediction markets offer more than direct trading revenue. Robinhood executives have said that some customers who start with simple yes-or-no event contracts later move on to options, futures and retirement accounts. That makes prediction markets a customer acquisition tool as well as a revenue line.
The regulatory question
Bernstein's forecasts rely on the US prediction market continuing to grow, and regulation is still the biggest uncertainty. Event contracts are regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which lets platforms offer sports-related contracts in states where traditional sports betting is restricted or banned. State gambling regulators and many tribal gaming operators strongly oppose this.
The pressure is growing. US Senator Ted Cruz has proposed legislation that would require state approval for prediction markets. Industry observers say it could keep sports contracts out of states such as Texas. In Ohio, regulators have gone further and warned licensed gaming operators about getting involved with prediction market products. Several court cases between platforms and state regulators are also still unresolved.
A tougher regulatory climate could slow the growth Bernstein expects, especially for sports contracts, which make up most of the volume. Non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto prices and company earnings would face less pressure from gambling regulators.
What it means
- For Robinhood: prediction markets give it a growth area that depends less on crypto prices. Today's Q3 results will be the next test.
- For Coinbase: event contracts and derivatives could become a $2 billion business, but investors have been more cautious, as the lower price target shows.
- For sportsbooks: brokerages with millions of active traders are now competing directly for sports bettors, often in states where traditional betting is unavailable.
- For regulators: the larger these revenues become, the more the conflict between federal derivatives rules and state gambling laws will matter.
For now, the numbers point one way. A product that started as a small add-on is on track to become one of Robinhood's largest revenue lines. Today's results will show how much of Bernstein's forecast is already reflected in the company's figures.
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