October 19, 2026
Catena Media has lowered its 2026 EBITDA growth outlook after a weak third quarter, as AI-driven search and smaller operator budgets cut into affiliate traffic.
Another tough update from one of the best-known names in gambling affiliation. Catena Media has lowered its EBITDA growth expectations for 2026, pointing to a disappointing third quarter as the main reason. The organic double-digit revenue growth the company had been aiming for is now off the table.
Company: Catena Media, gambling affiliate
What changed: 2026 EBITDA growth guidance revised down
Trigger: weak Q3 results
Dropped target: organic double-digit revenue growth
Main cause: falling search traffic and tighter operator marketing budgets
"This was a weak quarter"
CEO Manuel Stan did not try to dress up the numbers. In the company's statement he admitted the quarter fell short and explained why a business like Catena feels market shifts faster than most.
Under a CPA model, an affiliate is paid for each new player it sends to an operator. When fewer people land on its sites, fewer players sign up — and the revenue drops straight away, with no cushion.
Why the traffic is drying up
According to Stan, search engines are changing the way people find content, and that change works against classic affiliate sites. Two forces are behind the fall in visitors:
- AI-driven search: personalised, AI-assisted answers mean users click through to fewer websites.
- Tougher ranking: search engines are pushing content they see as less relevant further down the results pages (SERPs), where it gets far less attention.
- Smaller budgets: on top of this, operators have been cutting their marketing spend, which leaves less money to share with affiliate partners.
Looking beyond Google
Catena says it is not simply waiting for the storm to pass. The plan is to rely less on search and build income from other sources.
The three pillars of that strategy are the new TraffiqX project, a move into fresh verticals such as prediction markets, and stronger brands backed by loyalty programmes that bring users back directly rather than through search.
After its reorganisation in 2025, Catena Media was posting strong results. This year has been a different story: the company has gone through several rounds of job cuts in recent months, the latest affecting five roles.
Catena's warning is about more than one company. AI search and stricter ranking are squeezing every affiliate that lives on organic traffic, while operators spend less on marketing. Whether TraffiqX, prediction markets and loyalty schemes can fill the gap will decide how quickly Catena gets back to growth.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
