November 2, 2026
Gaming donors have poured millions into Joe Lombardo's re-election bid, but Kalshi and Polymarket now give Aaron Ford, the attorney general who fought prediction markets in court, a 75%+ chance in Nevada's governor race.
Nevada picks its next governor on Tuesday, 3 November, and the result matters to more than voters. The race between Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic attorney general Aaron Ford will decide who leads the biggest gaming market in the United States. Casino money has lined up overwhelmingly behind Lombardo. Prediction markets, the platforms Ford's office has fought hardest in court, now make Ford a clear favourite.
Election day: Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Incumbent: Joe Lombardo (Republican), former Clark County sheriff, governor since 2023
Challenger: Aaron Ford (Democrat), Nevada attorney general since 2019
Prediction markets: Ford above 75% on Kalshi and Polymarket
Polls: close, from Ford 45%–44% (MS NOW) to Lombardo 42%–40% (Noble Predictive Insights, 6 October)
Direct fundraising, 1 Jan–30 Sep: Lombardo $6.1M raised / $12.4M spent; Ford $4.9M raised / $5.2M spent
Markets and polls tell different stories
Through August and September, Lombardo was the favourite on both Kalshi and Polymarket. That changed abruptly in October. Ford pulled ahead at the start of the month, and traders have since pushed his chances above 75% on both platforms.
Traditional polling shows a much tighter race. MS NOW gave Ford a one-point lead, 45% to 44%, at the end of October, while a Noble Predictive Insights survey published on 6 October had Lombardo ahead 42% to 40%. Neither method has a perfect record. Most polls missed Donald Trump's 2024 win, and prediction markets failed to see Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election in Brazil coming in October.
History offers mixed signals too. Republicans Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons and Brian Sandoval held the governor's office for 20 straight years until Democrat Steve Sisolak won in 2018. Sisolak governed through the pandemic, when Nevada's casinos were closed for an unprecedented 78 days in 2020, and lost to Lombardo in 2022.
The casino industry backs Lombardo
Lombardo has the money advantage and is clearly the gaming industry's preferred candidate. Beyond his own campaign account, gaming-linked donors have put millions into PACs supporting him. One of them, Nevada Way PAC, has collected more than $10 million, according to Transparency USA. Its biggest gaming donors include:
- Station Casinos: $3 million, plus $1 million each from chairman Frank Fertitta and vice chairman Lorenzo Fertitta
- Las Vegas Sands: $1 million
- South Point Hotel and Casino: $350,000
- Boyd Gaming, The Venetian Las Vegas and Marnell Companies CEO Anthony Marnell III: $200,000 each
- Caesars Entertainment: $170,000; Wynn Resorts: $160,000; MGM Resorts: $150,000
- Fontainebleau Las Vegas: $100,000
- El Cortez and Golden Entertainment: $25,000 each; Light & Wonder: $20,000
The industry sees Lombardo as pro-business. At his direction, state gaming regulators have scrapped a number of outdated or unnecessary rules. Trump has endorsed him and appeared with him at an August rally in Las Vegas, where Lombardo said he has to "take care" of the state's gaming billionaires because they provide jobs. Ford's campaign has used that remark against him as living costs rise; Nevada currently has the third-highest petrol prices in the country, according to AAA. In recent weeks Lombardo has put some distance between himself and Trump as he courts independent voters.
Unions line up behind Ford
Ford's strongest backing comes from organised labour, above all the Culinary Union Local 226, Nevada's most powerful hospitality union, which endorsed him in September. Ford has supported the union's push to organise workers at Station Casinos' Red Rock Casino, after the US Supreme Court declined to hear Station's appeal, and said this week that he is "standing in solidarity" with Red Rock workers.
A pro-Ford PAC, A More Affordable Nevada, has raised $11 million, including $400,000 from Illinois Governor JB Pritzker. About $3 million of that came through the Forward Nevada PAC, whose donors include the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees ($1 million), hedge fund manager Aaron Sosnick and attorney John Morgan ($400,000 each), and several other unions.
Ford's fight against prediction markets
The irony of the race is that the casino industry's money is going against the candidate who has done the most to defend it from one of its biggest perceived threats. As attorney general, Ford has led Nevada's legal battle against prediction markets, and the state has arguably been more successful than any other. Sports, entertainment and election event contracts are banned from trading in Nevada, and in August the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in the state's favour.
"Nevada has built the gold standard for gaming regulation, and we will not allow companies to circumvent those protections or operate outside the law," Ford said after the ruling. "Our office is proud to have defended Nevada's authority, and we will continue working to protect Nevadans and the integrity of our gaming industry."
Why the governor's office matters to casinos
For Nevada's casino companies, the governor is not a distant political figure. The governor appoints the members of the Nevada Gaming Control Board and the Nevada Gaming Commission, the two bodies that license operators, approve new games and technology, investigate rule breaches and set the tone of regulation. A governor who pushes for lighter rules, as Lombardo has done, can change how quickly companies bring new products to market and how much compliance costs them.
The governor also shapes the state's tax and labour policies, which matter to an industry that employs a large share of Nevada's workforce. That explains why so many operators, from Strip giants like Caesars, MGM and Wynn to locals-focused companies such as Station Casinos and Boyd Gaming, have chosen to put money into the race.
Prediction markets add a new layer this year. The legal fight over event contracts is not over: platforms such as Kalshi argue that federal law governs their products, while Nevada insists they are unlicensed sports betting. Whoever becomes governor will help decide how hard the state keeps fighting, and how the Gaming Control Board responds if the courts or federal regulators shift the ground. For an industry that sees these platforms as a direct threat to its sportsbooks, that question may matter as much as any tax rate.
Whoever wins on Tuesday, Nevada's casino operators will be watching closely: one candidate has their donations, the other has a track record of protecting their market.
