September 16, 2026
Nicky Henderson has mapped out where Constitution Hill goes next on the Flat: the Cumberland Lodge at Ascot on 3 October, the St Simon at Newbury on 24 October, or a new $400,000 race in Bahrain on 13 November. His best Flat figure is an RPR of 109, earned in defeat at Kempton — and each of those three options asks a different question of it. One of them is worth the most money and suits him the least.
For most of his career, Constitution Hill was measured against horses that could not get near him. That is no longer the yardstick. Since switching his attention to the Flat, the 2023 Champion Hurdle winner has a single number attached to him — a Racing Post Rating of 109, earned in defeat in the September Stakes at Kempton earlier this month — and every decision Nicky Henderson now makes runs through it.
The trainer has since sketched out three possible destinations, and they could hardly be more different from one another: a Group 3 at Ascot, a Group 3 at Newbury, or a brand-new $400,000 prize in Bahrain. Here is what each one would actually require.
Cumberland Lodge Stakes — Ascot, 3 October · Group 3, 1m4f · Arc weekend
St Simon Stakes — Newbury, 24 October · Group 3, 1m4f · the soft-ground option
Gulf of Bahrain Cup — Bahrain, 13 November · new race, $400,000, 1m6f · 12 runners max, rated 90+
Where he stands: best Flat RPR of 109 · official Flat mark of 108
Trainer: Nicky Henderson · Owner: Michael Buckley
What 109 actually means
Two numbers follow Constitution Hill around and they are not the same thing. The Racing Post Rating of 109 is an assessment of how well he actually ran at Kempton — a performance figure. The official mark of 108 is the handicapper's view of him, the number that determines what weight he carries in a handicap.
Ratings of this kind are expressed in pounds, which is what makes them useful for planning a campaign: the gap between two figures translates directly into weight. A horse rated 109 facing one rated 118 is, in the handicapper's language, nine pounds behind — a considerable distance at Group level, and precisely the problem Henderson is trying to solve when he picks the next race.
Option one: the Cumberland Lodge, Ascot, 3 October
The logic of Ascot is avoidance in the best sense. Falling on the same weekend as Longchamp's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe meeting, the Cumberland Lodge is routinely thinned out by the horses that go to France instead — which would spare Constitution Hill the calibre of opposition that beat him at Kempton.
The complication is a single rival. Only two horses have won the last four runnings: Hamish took it in 2022, and Al Qareem has since completed a hat-trick. The Karl Burke-trained seven-year-old relishes softer ground, has raced just three times this season and has not been seen since 13 June, though owner Nick Bradley indicated in August that an autumn return was likely.
Al Qareem's three winning performances came with RPRs of 113, 116 and 118. Set against that, 109 is not close — and on the historical record, Constitution Hill's Kempton figure would not have been good enough to beat any of the last ten Cumberland Lodge winners. Henderson expects improvement, and he would need it.
Option two: the St Simon Stakes, Newbury, 24 October
Newbury is the option where the form actually fits, and it fits for one reason: the ground.
Over the same mile-and-a-half trip, the St Simon has been staged on soft or worse for each of the last five runnings. Constitution Hill's record in those conditions over hurdles is about as emphatic as a record gets — three from three on soft, one from one on heavy. Autumn at Newbury is the closest the Flat calendar comes to putting him on the surface he has spent his career dominating.
The bar is also lower. Hamish won this race last year with an RPR of 119, but the ten-year picture is more forgiving than Ascot's: an improvement of 5lb on Kempton, taking Constitution Hill to an RPR of 114, would have been enough to beat four of the last ten St Simon winners. That is a meaningful ask, but it is the kind of step a horse can take on ground that genuinely suits him — rather than the near-double-figure leap Ascot's recent standard implies.
Option three: the $400,000 question
Then there is Bahrain, and the reason it is on the list is printed on the cheque. The Gulf of Bahrain Cup is a new race worth $400,000, run for the first time on 13 November on the same card as the Bahrain International Trophy — and the prize-money has caught the eye of both Henderson and owner Michael Buckley.
The conditions are straightforward: a field capped at 12 runners, open to horses rated 90 or higher. Constitution Hill qualifies comfortably on 108, but that comes with a catch — a mark that high would likely have him carrying close to top weight, depending on who else turns up.
The trip is a genuine unknown too. At 1m6f it is further than he has tackled on the Flat, though a horse with his jumping record is unlikely to be troubled by stamina, and Billy Loughnane suggested after Kempton that a step up in distance could suit him.
The richest option is also the one that fits him worst on the single factor that matters most. When Karl Burke's Royal Champion won the Bahrain International Trophy at last year's meeting, the going was good — and fast ground is exactly what Constitution Hill's record does not recommend. Henderson has been clear that the surface would be decisive in whether the horse travels at all. Top weight, an untried Flat trip and ground that may not suit, for $400,000: that is the trade being weighed.
The thread running through all three
Read the three options together and they resolve into a single question about ground rather than three questions about opposition.
Ascot in early October is a lottery on the weather and on who else shows up. Newbury in late October has produced soft or worse five years running, which is the nearest thing to a guarantee the calendar offers. Bahrain in November is, on last year's evidence, likely to be quick — and quick is the one condition under which his Flat figure looks least likely to improve.
It is an unusual position for a horse of his stature: the most valuable race available is the one his own form argues against, and the one he is best suited to carries a fraction of the prize-money.
Could he run in both British races?
Henderson has suggested Constitution Hill could take in both Ascot and Newbury, and there is a recent precedent for exactly that double. In 2021, Ilaraab finished third in the Cumberland Lodge off an RPR of 102 before going on to win the St Simon later the same month.
That is the template worth keeping in mind, and it reframes the Ascot question entirely. A run on 3 October does not have to be the target; it can be the preparation — a competitive outing at Group level with three weeks to the race that actually suits him, at a point in his Flat career where experience may be worth as much as any individual result.
Ratings, targets and running plans are as reported at the time of writing and are subject to change; entries depend on ground, fitness and connections' final decisions. Images are illustrative. Betting involves risk and isn't suitable for everyone — please gamble responsibly, set your limits, and if it stops being fun, take a break.
